Just six in ten voters believe Sir Keir Starmer will still be Prime Minister at the end of 2025 following a disastrous start for his government.

And there is deep gloom about the state of the economy with almost six in ten expecting the UK to enter recession next year.

However voters also have little confidence in Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, with only half expecting her to remain as leader of the opposition for the next 12 months according to exclusive polling by Ipsos.

Some Labour MPs are already discussing the possibility of Sir Keir quitting Number 10 instead of staying to fight the next election with Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner touted as potential replacements. The survey found 61 percent of voters believe it is fairly or very likely that Sir Keir will still be Prime Minister by the end of neat year.

Labour’s first six months in office following July’s election victory have been dominated by rows over means-testing winter fuel payments and increases to employer National Insurance contributions. Party insiders argue that the Government has also made progress delivering on manifesto commitments such as re-nationalising rail services, improving buses, giving more rights to renters and improving employment laws, but fear the party is failing to communicate its successes.

The new year will see an attempt to shift away from gloomy messaging on the economy with the introduction of new laws designed to strengthen community policing, step up border security and build more homes.

However one Labour MP critical of Sir Keir said: “We came into power without a plan and I don’t think Keir ever really wanted to be Prime Minister. He thought he would be the person to rebuild the party after all the damage when Jeremy Corbyn was leader, and then someone else would actually win an election.”

Insiders also fear Chancellor Rachel Reeves will take the blame for the struggling economy, despite her efforts to pin responsibility on a “black hole” in the public finances inherited from the Conservatives.

Office for National Statistics figures have shown the economy contracted by 0.1 percent in October following a similar fall in September and inflation is above the 2 percent target at 2.6 percent, making cuts in interest rates unlikely until it falls.

The Ipsos polling shows voters are pessimistic about the economy with 57 percent of voters expect the UK to be in recession next year. One expert said the economy is in fact likely to improve, but voters may not feel richer as a result.

Julian Jessop, Economics Fellow at the Institute of Economic Affairs said: “The economy is probably already in a recession in terms of output per head, but growth should resume next year.

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“Most people will still see their incomes rise faster than prices, and the increases in public spending will offset at least some of the weakness in the private sector.

“Nonetheless, this may continue to feel like a recession for many small businesses, and to people struggling to pay higher mortgages or worried about keeping their jobs.”

Conservatives hoping to capitalise on Labour’ woes are in a battle with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which last week claimed it had overtaken the Tories on membership numbers with 131,680 members now signed up. Ms Badenoch insisted this was “not true”, saying the Conservative Party “has gained thousands of new members” since she became leader.

Reform hope to make gains in May’s local elections but strategists believe they may reach a “tipping point” in 2026 if they can beat the Conservatives in elections for both the Welsh Assembly, where polls suggest they may come top, and Scottish Parliament, where current polling suggests Reform could finish third behind the SNP and Labour.

But Reform also hopes to strike a blow to Labour in by-elections in 2025. A Reform source said: “We are the one party that can appeal to both Tory heartlands and Labour heartlands.”