Top pollster explains how the Brexit architect could secure the keys to No 10.
Martin Baxter sets out how Farage could become PM
A pollster has set out a scenario which could see Nigel Farage enter 10 Downing Street.
Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus used a graph to show how many seats the polling company predicts Reform UK would win with different vote shares.
He said that if the rebranded Brexit Party secures 28% of the vote share it could become the largest party in the House of Commons Commons.
Under such a scenario, the Brexit architect could become prime minister with Tory support.
Mr Baxter told GB News: “The graph here is showing the number of seats that Reform will win, under our predictions, against the vote share they get.
Reform leader Nigel Farage (Image: Getty)
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“But the interesting thing is that at the moment they’re on 15% support and just five seats.
“If they can get up to 25% support in the polls, they get about 100 seats.
“The really interesting thing for the year ahead is if they do a bit better than 25%, if they can push through that, they might or they might not, but if they get up to 28%, it’s only slightly more than that, they’re actually the largest party in the House of Commons.
“And Nigel Farage might be the Prime Minister with Conservative support.”
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Mr Baxter said Labour, which has seen support nosedive since July’s election, and the Tories are both currently on an average of 26% in their polling, while Mr Farage’s insurgent party is on 22%.
It comes after Reform overtook Sir Keir Starmer’s party in a national poll for the first time earlier this month.
The party has been building momentum with a series of key defections from the Conservatives and passing the milestone of 100,000 members.
The next general election is not due to take place until 2029.
