No love lost between Reform UK and the Conservatives it seems with Reform chief Nigel Farage this week dismissing talk of any election pact. Farage called under-fire Tory leader Kemi Badenoch — who herself has ruled out a pact — “lazy” and her some of her fellow Tory MPs “stuffy, bor ing old bastards”. Yet many Tory MPs want a pact with Farage, ostensibly because they believe it is the only way to avoid electoral wipeout come the next general election, while avoiding splitting the Right, and allowing Labour back into power.

Yet Farage no doubt knows the real reason many Tories want a pact is that — on current poll numbers anyway — Labour would lose the next election, and Reform and the Conservatives would have enough MPs combined to rule in coalition. However, if those polling numbers hold true, Reform would have the larger number of MPs, meaning the Tories would be the junior partner in any partnership, and Farage would likely serve as PM. This may be the genuine reason many Tories want a deal — to show those caught between Reform and the Tories that they’re taken seriously and can vote for either. This could guarantee it is the Conservatives, not Reform, who would govern as the senior partner in a coalition.

Truth be told, both Farage and Badenoch have good reason to dismiss talk of a deal right now. If voters believed this was in the offing, many Reform supporters would see less need to back Farage’s party, while some centrist Tory voters — those flirt ing with the Lib Dems — could be put off backing the Conservatives.

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Still, as the Runcorn by election and local elections loom, it is Reform UK which has the momentum. Reform also stands to gain from Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s austerity-lite spring statement, with many voters in Labour-Reform marginals angry that ordinary folk are being hammered — as they see it — with welfare cuts.

In many ways, Badenoch’s leadership is Reform’s greatest asset. Should Tory MPs seek to remove her before the slated 2029 election then – while no guarantee of a turnaround in fortunes – it could catalyse greater support for the party.

My hunch however is the optics of ousting Badenoch would be terrible. For now, talk of a deal is for the birds. Frankly both leaders know it is way too early for such discussions.

Farage may be wise to the fact Tory MPs have ulterior motives for such a deal, and it is certainly possible a pact could be struck should Reform and the Tories have enough MPs combined to govern in partnership.

As Reform’s star rises — and with Labour very much also in the gun sights of Reform as the party looks to take voters from the governing party — it is little wonder Farage is not willing to entertain talk of a deal with a discredited Conservative Party increasingly marginalised in the national conversation.