The first forecast for the upcoming Runcorn and Helsby by-election has suggested the result will be on a knife-edge, with Reform on course to deal Labour a bloody nose. Britain Elects, one of the country’s most respected polling analysts, has published a model showing that Nigel Farage is on course to be just 1,000 votes shy of winning the North West seat.

Mike Amesbury, who finally resigned yesterday following his conviction for attacking a constituent, won the seat with a 15,000 majority last July. This would represent a major collapse in support for Labour, with Britain Elects suggesting Keir Starmer’s vote share is set to plunge by 20 points. Reform will gain around 12 points, just 3% behind Labour, with the Tories up four points to 20%.

Nationally Reform is tied with Labour and ahead of the Tories in almost all opinion polls, however the upcoming by-election will be a major test of Nigel Farage’s organisation skills and Reform’s ground campaign.

A focus group organised by the More in Common think tank asked eight local voters who all backed Labour last year who they are feeling about Keir Starmer’s first few months in office.

Dave, a builder, said Labour is doing a worse job than the previous Tory government, accusing Sir Keir of having in “come in on a lot of promises, but he just seems to have forgotten what he promised and they’re just making their minds up as they go along.”

Kurtis, a hotel manager, agreed that things have “got worse”, condemning the National Insurance rise in April that will hammer the economy.

The group also slammed the decision to strip pensioners of winter fuel allowance, and all voiced outrage at the incident that forced Mike Amesbury to resign as their member of parliament.

One participant said his suspended sentence on appeal was a clear case of “one rule for them, one rule for another.”

Tayla, a student, compared it to the Partygate scandal under the Tories, asking: “Why is it different for you and not for everybody else? What makes him so important that it’s ok just to kind of disregard it?”

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“As a loyal and optimistic sort of chap, I don’t think Reform will lose many votes following the little spat. 14,000+ votes is a mountain to …”

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The panel said Reform will be a “really strong contender” in the coming by-election, with praise for the party’s stance on immigration.

However many questioned whether Reform has any “other policies”.

Luke Tryl, the UK director of More in Common, told the Telegraph: “Looking ahead to the by-election, this group of former Labour voters were taking their time to make up their mind, while they had seen a strong Reform presence locally and were open to Farage’s party as a way of fixing Britain’s malaise”.

“They weren’t yet sold, and worried Farage was in danger of becoming another politician who just says what people want to hear.

“Much will come down to the by-election campaign itself. Can Labour convince the voters of Runcorn they are now delivering change, or can Reform pass that crucial credibility test?”